September 4, 2026: Vladimir can sense that he is going to lose in Ukraine but wants to go out fighting and keep Russian forces in Ukraine, even if only a small portion of Ukraine, for as long as possible. Part of this plan involves allegedly expanding the army to 2.3 million soldiers. Russian officials in charge of mobilizing troops expect to be asked for another few hundred thousand at most. Currently, Russia has about 700,000 troops in Ukraine, while the Ukrainian forces have nearly 900,000. Worse, there have been months when Russia has not been able to mobilize enough soldiers to replace monthly battlefield losses.

Most Russians now know, from reports of returning wounded and disabled soldiers, that going to Ukraine is worse than playing Russian Roulette. About half the troops sent there in the last year have been killed or wounded. Worse, the Ukrainians are taking far fewer casualties; currently, for every killed or wounded Ukrainian, there are eight or nine Russian losses. Ukraine keeps its losses down by training new recruits first, something the Russians avoid. Ukraine is also using more ground combat drones, most of them equipped with machine guns or other infantry weapons and controlled by operators in bunkers several, or up to twenty, kilometers away. One operator can often handle three or more of these drones, although in an active combat situation it's one operator per drone. At the same time, Ukraine has even more aerial drones overhead, supporting the ground drones and providing information on where the targets are.

The weakening Russian resistance in Ukraine has enabled the Ukrainians to regain territory that has been occupied by Russia since 2014. That means that Crimea and eastern Ukraine will eventually, this year or next, be under Ukrainian control. Putin is desperate to expand his forces to avoid a Ukrainian victory, but many Russians are avoiding military service. Because of the losses in Ukraine, nearly 1.5 million Russians are dead, wounded, or missing, plus another million or so who fled Russia to avoid army service. These losses have created labor shortages, and Putin's economic advisors warn that the Russian economy cannot support an expanded war in Ukraine.

It’s a classic Guns or Butter situation that has Putin trapped. If he continues to fight, he risks civil unrest over continued mobilization to fight a lost war. If Putin stops sending more soldiers to Ukraine and pays more attention to the economy, he risks retaliation from Russians angry because so much has been lost and nothing gained.